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Do time-to-tumor-growth (TTG) metrics need to be corrected for time-dependent bias in pharmacometric oncology models?

Author: Piet van der Graaf, PhD, PharmD on December 22, 2016

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A main objective of the application of pharmacometrics in oncology is to develop drug-independent models to link tumor-growth-inhibition (TGI) metrics, such as ratio of tumor size at end-of-cycle to baseline tumor size (TSratio), tumor growth rate and time-to-tumor-growth (TTG), to overall survival (OS). Recently, Han et al. proposed that TTG was the best TGI metric to predict OS for comparing bevacizumab plus chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy alone in gastric cancer (see figure). This triggered a debate between the authors and Mistry in the journal whether or not these results are potentially misleading due to an intrinsic time-dependent bias in TTG metrics.

I invite readers of PSP to contribute to this debate.

 

Image by Han, et al., CPT Pharmacometrics Syst. Pharmacol, doi: 10.1002/ psp4.12064, is licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0. ©2016 The authors.


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